The latest Economist / You Gov Poll out September 8th, the same glaring mistakes are made all over again.
While National Polls matter little (because of the Electoral College) YouGov seems content with double-digit sampling advantages for Democrats when polling for the Presidential Election. In this most recent poll that gives Joe Biden a 7% lead over Trump, of 1,497 respondents, only 1,181 were registered voters and of that, only 1057 were likely voters. The problem is that in 2016 only 55% of voting-age adults in the US turned out to vote. In this poll, it suggests over 70% of voting-age adults will turn out to vote in November.
Additionally, with topline data showing a 7% lead for Biden, a quick review of the data reveals of 1,182 Registered voters (no propensity) 458 were Democrat, 411 were Independent, and 313 were Republican or 39/35/26 split for respondents. Does anyone in their right mind think that Democrats are walking into the November Election with a 13 point advantage?
Secondarily, and in response to concerns voiced to me about using a 45/10/45 split, I will also include Pew’s 2016 turnout estimates, which place it at a 35/34/31 split and provide a corresponding spread from the two. If we apply this turnout model split, we see that Biden’s 7 point lead from the poll is more like 2-5 points or factoring for the margin of error, a statistical dead heat.
The most interesting result I see in this poll is that 25% of independents say they will not cast a vote for President this year. Considering that more Independent Trump voters are enthusiastic about voting for him, than are Independent Biden Voters.
Democrats hold a 2 point advantage on their enthusiasm on voting in the Presidential race, 50 to 48 and Republicans hold an 18 point advantage in enthusiasm for their candidate as compared to their Democrat counterparts 68 to 50.
Democrats also face a deficit in their support for their candidate (compared to voting against the opposing candidate) with only 49% of Democrats voting FOR Joe Biden and 47% voting AGAINST Donald Trump. With Republicans, 85% say they are voting FOR Donald Trump and only 15% say they are voting against. That works out to a 36 point candidate enthusiasm advantage for Republicans.
Only 69% of Democrat respondents believe Joe Biden will win the Election, with Republicans believing Trump is headed to victory with 79%.
Independents align closer to Republicans than Democrats when it comes to the issue of voting by mail. Only 49% of Independent respondents agreed with voting by mail, compared to 85% with Democrats and 30% with Republicans.
When it comes to the support of Joe Biden’s policies, only 23% of Democrats say they always support Joe’s Policies, compared to 35% with Republicans saying they always support Donald Trump’s policies. When the question includes sometimes support, support for Biden’s policies increases to 55% amongst Democrats, and support for Trump’s policies increases to 80%, a full 25 point advantage in policy support for Trump and Republicans.
Included in this poll was a question about the recent Atlantic article that stated that Trump made disparaging comments about war-dead during a trip to France. Both Republicans and Democrats are flipped on their belief in the alleged statements, 72 to 71 (72% of Dems believe the statement and 71% of Republicans do not). The issue that Dems should be concerned with is that Independents lean towards not believing the story 40% saying they don’t believe the story and 32% stating they do. Obviously, the narrative isn’t carrying.
More polling analysis coming tomorrow with the latest polls. Follow along here on RedState.com or follow me on Twitter @hounsizzle.