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Washington, DC — In their most recent update, website FiveThirtyEight gives President Donald Trump a 27% chance to win the election. The website claims that the election was simulated 40,000 times and a sample of 100 likely outcomes was given. The results overwhelmingly favored Biden.
In their analysis, they predict that Trump will win 214 electoral college votes to Joe Biden’s 324. They also predict Trump to lose the popular vote 53 to 46%. In each circumstance, the outlook was bleak for President Trump.
The statistics by FiveThirtyEight do not seem to take into account some of the most recent data that is being reported. As I shared in my most recent podcast, President Trump’s job approval has been on the rise. Rasmussen has him at 51%, while others show him in the 40’s. This is significant because he has been on the rise for the past several weeks.
Just a few weeks ago, we were told that Texas and Georgia were both in play for Joe Biden. Recent polls show that Texas and Georgia are both red. Texas by 7 and Georgia by 2.
The gap in many of the close battleground states is closing as well. In Pennsylvania, the gap has closed to 4. North Carolina shows tied as does Minnesota. More results will be coming out of other states soon, but I expect the results to be the same.
What has happened in the race that is causing the race to tighten in the polls? The transition has happened over the past month and there are two events that this can be tied to specifically.
First, it has been one month since President Trump made a change at the top of his campaign. In July, he replaced Brad Parscale as his campaign manager and promoted Bill Stepien. Since that time, the campaign has been laser-focused, without the drama that was present in the first half of the year.
Then, Trump has also transitioned his focus on the coronavirus. He has taken part in some of the best press conferences about the coronavirus over the past few weeks. He has consistently walked a line, refusing to go off on tangents about controversial items.
Both of these items have contributed to President Trump’s resurgence in the race. Also helping is the fact that Joe Biden has been forced out of the basement. Biden continues to struggle each and every time he appears in public. While the media has celebrated his DNC speech, Biden is not at risk when he is simply reading.
In his basement, he can read a teleprompter or cards. The issue for Biden is when he attempts to freelance. Just as the media wants to attack Trump when he goes off-topic, Biden becomes a huge liability when he goes off his written remarks. Each week, the evidence of cognitive issues for Joe Biden becomes ever-present.
So while the articles will continue to say that Trump has no chance of winning, the race is much different over the past few weeks. Trump certainly has more than a 27% chance of winning the election. Generally, races within the margin of error should favor the incumbent, but the mainstream media will never let that happen.
Jared Dyson is the Editor-in-Chief at The Liberty Loft and host of The Jared Dyson Show. Be sure to subscribe to The Liberty Loft’s daily newsletter. If you enjoy our content, please consider donating to support The Liberty Loft so we can continue to deliver great content.