Guest post by Ted Malloch
All the pundits, forecasters and famous economists – the likes of NY Times columnist, Paul Krugman – said it was impossible. Of course, they wanted the recession to turn into a full-blown depression and cost Trump the election. They dearly wanted havoc, suffering, unemployment and a sour downturn to go on and on, at least until after the November election.
How else could they win? Certainly not with their compromised, demented and globalist choice: BEIJING BIDEN.
All the Blue State Governors and Democrat big city Mayors sought to lockdown the economy and enterprise for as long as possible. Shutter that business they yelled!
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This way dire numbers would be not just bad but ominous; and with more unrest, people would vote the President out of office.
It was an obvious political stunt: a hoax.
But as the recent jobs number showed, the economy is in take-off and the recession, while deep, will be short lived.
The TV hosts and commentators, even those like FOX’s anti-Trump, Neil Cavuto, were caught off guard and dead wrong. The econometrician forecasters—all of them, said the employment situation would worsen and shoot past 20 per cent. But the opposite occurred, and the number actually fell—like a stone by more than 3.6 million in one survey. It dropped by that much instead of going to their predicted 20 per cent. Now that’s a big mistake – Americans want to get back to work, something these preening elites wouldn’t know anything about.
How could they and their lauded models be so wrong, so far off? Aren’t these people supposed to be “experts”? Don’t they know or is it just a ‘guess’ based on misguided assumptions.
Trump himself has been right all along.
His demands to reopen the economy out of its imposed coma embodies the true American spirit. That spirit this proves has not died. It is alive and well.
Watch it go back to work. The results will produce a recovery and economic boom like we have never seen before. The next month’s data will be even better, and the quarterly results will turn heads. The V – for Victory – is shooting straight up!
It turns out as usual, the stock market had it right! It has been up in a bull market for well over a month now and the numbers send a signal. The S&P is up again and had the best week since 1974. The NASDAQ Index was near record highs. The Dow Industrials jumped by 6.8 per cent and ended close to breakeven for 2020, despite the Covid downward slope.
Remember, the stock market anticipates the future. Fed Chairman Powell’s “Whatever it takes” strategy again prove that smoothing over recessions is what our Central Bank is for.
What is the Market saying? Let me translate it for you: the market thinks we are in a massive rebound—a comeback that will be quick and unlike any other. Pent-up demand, as reflected in a skyrocketing savings rate, will give way to the kind of consumption we’re accustomed to.
Another positive sign is small and new businesses are on a very healthy rise. People want to go back to work; they want to earn a living; they want to invest; and they want to see economic growth back to and beyond where it was before the self-imposed Covid lockdown.
Just four months ago we had a record Trumponomic economy that was going gangbusters with the lowest unemployment in recorded history – with all-time record-setting unemployment lows in black, Hispanic, women and other important categories.
What do we need at this point to keep this going in the right direction?
Simply more fuel to insure the dramatic V-shaped recovery.
The best single policy in that regard is as Trump insists a tax holiday on income, the Payroll Tax Cut. This amounts to a pay increase on a base salary of $40K amounting to over $3K, after tax. That is money right in the pocket of all the hardworking average American workers and families. It means you can keep more of what you earn.
The Democrats and Biden don’t like that but let them run a campaign against it.
Congress has already passed legislation to encourage continued payment of wages and benefits by providing relief to employers in the form of payroll-related tax credits, loans, and tax-deferral programs, including:
• Businesses with fewer than 500 employees, tax credits to cover the cost of paid sick and paid family leave coverage required for those employees;
• Tax-free forgiveness of certain government-guaranteed loans to small businesses to cover payroll and operating expenses during the coronavirus pandemic;
• Payroll tax credit for qualifying wages paid during a time when the employer’s business has been suspended or experienced a significant decline in revenue; and
• Deferral of an employer’s portion of 2020 Social Security taxes not recovered under the payroll tax credit.
We also need to focus on targeted areas, populations, and sectors that have been hard hit. These include minorities, restaurants, hospitality, travel, retail and manufacturing.
We need more stimulus –particularly another $1200 check from Uncle Sam for individuals who earn under $100K around September 1st.
That would keep the recovery going and give it legs.
The good news is that the economy is correcting itself. That is the magic of the market. Capitalism is a wonderful thing. It is a combination of both animal spirits and moral design.
This is now officially a V-shaped recovery, regardless what the Trump-haters say. The numbers are the proof.
This means Trump will be decisively re-elected come November and the dynamism of the American innovative private sector will once again unleash prosperity and well-being for everyone in its wake.
Take Note: America is back.
The White House should be pleased, very pleased. Maybe they should be playing the 60’s hit song from The Troopers at the Republican National Convention come August, The Shape of Things to Come.
Theodore Roosvelt Malloch is an American author, consultant, and television producer. His most recent book, Trump’s World: Geo Deus (Humanix, 2020) compiles the case for Trump based on his 4 years in office (so far!) and codifies for the first time the Trumpian governing philosophy.