Florida may be the first swing state where enough votes have been counted to provide insight into the outcome. About half of the expected vote is in. Last I saw, Biden leads 51-48.5.
But do we know enough about the nature of the votes counted to read the tea leaves? I doubt it, and suspect that this will be the case in other swing states, as well.
For what it’s worth, the New York Times has Trump on track to carry Florida by about three points. He will need to carry it, I believe.
The key factor in the New York Times’ analysis of Florida is President Trump’s strong showing among Latino voters. No one should be surprised by that showing.
Florida’s Latino voters aren’t typical of this cohort in the rest of the country. But Trump may perform relatively well with Latinos nationwide. We’ll see.
The Times’ Nate Cohn says Trump is also doing better in Florida with Black voters than he did last time. We’ve been predicting that Trump would significantly increase his share of the Black vote. However, it looks like Trump is only up by 2.5 in mostly Black precincts from 2016. I would have expected a bigger bump.
KENTUCKY UPDATE: The president carried Kentucky, of course. And Mitch McConnell crushed his challenger, Amy McGrath.
McGrath filled up my “promotions” mailbox, finishing second only to the guy challenging Lindsey Graham in volume of messages. She must have had money to burn if she wasted it on me.
Now, it turns out that she, and the folks who financed her, wasted their money, full stop.
GOP LIKELY TO PICK UP A FLA. HOUSE SEAT: The Republican, a Latino, leads the incumbent Dem in FLA-26 by about 4 points with almost 90 percent of the expected vote counted.
ALSO: Rep. Donna Shalala, remember her, is narrowly behind her GOP challenger in FLA-27. Her challenger is a Latina. However, the race is very, very tight.
MEANWHILE IN GEORGIA: Less than 10 percent of the expected vote has been counted. For what it’s worth, the New York Times forecasts that Trump win carry the state by 3 points. He carried it by 5 points in 2016, I believe.
OK: Now the Times predicts Trump will carry Georgia by 4 points, almost the same margin as last time. This would augur well for Sen. David Perdue, who hopes to avoid a January runoff in his race. A runoff seems certain in the other Georgia Senate race.
WHAT ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA? I thought this state would probably swing to Biden. It might. But the Times, which projected Biden the winner by about three points before any votes were counted, now projects Trump as the winner by a razor thin margin 0.4 points. That’s with 60 percent of the estimated vote counted.
WHAT ABOUT THE N.C. SENATE RACE? According to Nate Silver, Cal Cunningham is running behind Biden by abut 2 points, which I guess was to be expected given Cunningham’s sex scandals. So even if Biden squeaks out a victory in the Tar Heel State, Sen. Thom Tillis might be able to hold his seat.
UPDATE ON THE LATINO VOTE: As we suspected, Florida isn’t the only state where Trump is doing much better among Latinos than he did four years ago. CNN’s exit polls says that in Ohio, where Clinton carried this grouping by 41 points, Biden is carrying it by 24. And in Georgia, Biden’s margin is 25 points, compared to 40 for Clinton.
THE NEXT FRONT: The focus of this election will now shift from the Southeast to the so-called Rust Belt – specifically to Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where it was always thought the contest would be decided. Unfortunately, the New York Times’ “needle,” which has been so helpful in discerning the state of play in Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, is unavailable in the four states mentioned about (or any other state).
Why? Because of the way votes are being counted this year. Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina are counting and reporting votes with a level of efficiency and detail that makes “instant analysis” possible. The other states that matter aren’t.
UNCERTAINTY IN OHIO: The Biden campaign is talking up its chances of carrying Ohio, a state that seems critical to President Trump’s reelection bid. Biden has a nice lead with half of the expected vote in, although this vote is said to be almost entirely absentee. Team Biden also says it likes its numbers from the Columbus suburbs.
On the other hand, Steve’s friend Henry Olsen says the early vote in Ohio isn’t pro-Biden enough to justify confidence that the former vice president will carry the state.
As I suggested, this looks like a night of uncertainty.
IT’S A LITTLE AFTER 9:00 IN THE EAST: As I recall, it was at about this time four years ago when the political class began to realize that a Trump upset was probably in the making. I don’t think the political class, or most objective observers for that matter, is at that point now.
The results from Florida, Georgia, and (probably) North Carolina support the idea that another Trump upset could be in the making. But we seem to know next to nothing about the key Rust Belt states.
INTERESTING TAKE FROM A MEMBER OF THE FIVETHIRTYEIGHT CREW:
Since it’s looking less and less like we’ll see a Democratic blowout tonight, this has consequences, even if Democrats eventually win the trifecta. For one, it makes it harder for Republicans to move on from Trump’s hold on the party, since Trump will likely wind up having overperformed expectations. A return of moderate Republicans was already unlikely, but it is becoming less and less so by the minute tonight.
Second, it will make it harder for Democrats to get much done. They really need 52 or 53 seats in the Senate to have a chance at getting rid of the filibuster and moving some major legislation. That’s looking less likely right now.
TRUMP NOW AHEAD IN OHIO: Trump 2,129,977 (49.38 percent) Biden 2,127,535 (49.32 percent). That’s with about three-fourths of the estimated vote counted.
It’s very hard to interpret the Ohio results. I’m hoping that Trump’s surge is a function of the votes cast today and that it will continue as more of these votes are counted. But if lots of the big city vote is out, then Biden could surge at the end.
If Ohio turns out to be very close, then even if Trump wins there, it could be a bad sign for him in the other Rust Belt states. In recent years, Ohio has been the strongest of these states for the GOP.
GOOD NEWS ON THE SENATE FRONT: Tom Bevan tweets: “Tillis just took the lead in NC. GOP keeps this seat, they keep the Senate.”
I’ll drink to that.
ALSO, as expected, Lindsey Graham has been reelected. I got so many emails from his opponent, Jamie Harrison, that I felt he was stalking me.
ALSO, it’s looking pretty good for Roger Marshall, the GOP Senate candidate in Kansas. He’s ahead by 3 points and, from what I understand, most of the vote from his opponent’s strongholds have been counted.
WAS OHIO FOOLS GOLD FOR BIDEN? It’s looking that way. Josh Kraushaar tweets that Trump is now up by 2.4 points in Ohio with more of the election day vote still to be counted. Trump won Ohio by 8 points last time, however.
THERE’S ALSO THIS: The New York Times’ Nate Cohn notes that Trump is running ahead of his 2016 performance in Trumbull County, Ohio (Warren, near Youngstown and on the west PA border) with nearly all of the vote counted. Cohn calls this “an ominous sign for Biden in Pennsylvania.”
SAY GOODBYE TO DOUG JONES: As expected, this Democratic incumbent has lost in Alabama. When Jones defeated Roy Moore in a special election, it seemed possible that, if he voted consistently liberal, it could gum things up for President Trump and Majority Leader McConnell.
Jones was a reliable liberal vote (to his credit, he didn’t moderate in the hope of holding his seat), but he didn’t gum things up. Senate Republicans showed remarkable discipline, so Jones’ votes didn’t matter. He’s just a footnote now.
However, I regret that the new Alabama Senator will be Coach Tuberville, rather than Jeff Sessions.
IS GEORGIA STILL IN PLAY? Apparently, around 80,000 mail ballots have been delayed from Gwinnett County because of a software error. This is a very blue area. Sounds suspicious to me.
DOUG COLLINS CONCEDES IN GEORGIA: He finished third in the “jungle primary.” Sen. Kelly Loeffler will carry the GOP flag in the January runoff. Collins has just strongly endorsed her.
As for the other GOP Senate incumbent from Georgia, David Perdue is well ahead. Chances are he won’t require a runoff, or so it looks to me.
WHAT ABOUT WISCONSIN: About 43 percent of the estimated vote from Wisconsin has been counted. Trump is ahead 50-48 (about 30,000 votes). Where are the votes from and how many are absentee? I don’t know.
Ed Morrissey says that votes have come in from blue Milwaukee and Dane County. But I haven’t seen any quantification of this.
LINDSEY GRAHAM GLOATS: And who can blame him? Graham tweeted:
To all of the pollsters out there, you have no idea what you are doing. To all of the liberals in California and New York: you wasted a lot of money. This is the worst return on investment in the history of American politics.
But maybe California and New York liberals don’t care about return on investment. Contributing money to Graham’s hapless opponent made them feel good.
I’M GOING TO END THIS POST WHERE I STARTED IT: We probably aren’t going to know who won this race tonight. If Florida and Ohio had gone to Biden, we would have a very good idea. However, they didn’t. Florida went to Trump and Ohio probably will, as well.
Therefore, the race almost certainly will be decided where it was last time — in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin (and maybe Georgia if it is still in play). Wisconsin and Michigan might have a winner tomorrow. Pennsylvania isn’t expected to have one until Friday. And that’s assuming no serious litigation.
I will start another post to cover other developments from tonight, e.g., Senate races.
