I have gone out on a limb and predicted that President Trump will carry Minnesota this year, while our friend Jason Lewis will win his Senate race against faceless incumbent Tina Smith. Tonight, poll data became available that suggest the Democrats’ hopes in Minnesota are fading fast.
The survey was done by Harper Polling and covered 501 likely voters, reached by a combination of land lines and cell phones between August 30 and September 1. The margin of error is 4.38%.
Harper finds that Jason Lewis is now within two points of Tina Smith, after trailing by 11 in May:
Harper finds that Lewis leads Smith among independents, 40% to 35%, and has big leads over the incumbent in Northern Minnesota (51/37), Southern Minnesota (49/36) and the outer Twin Cities counties (a rather shocking 50/31). Smith’s support is soft, to say the least. Statewide, she has 39% favorability and 21% unfavorability, with 40% of voters saying, Tina who?
President Trump is also surging. In May, he trailed Joe Biden by eight points, 50% to 42%. Today, he has pulled within three, at 48%-45%:
Significantly, 52% of likely voters approve of the president’s handling of the economy.
I think the riots, looting and arson that have bedeviled American cities are killing the Democrats. Tina Smith issued a typically tone-deaf statement, saying that “we need to ‘reimagine the police’ and that there is something ‘dangerously wrong with the role police play in our society.’” Harper finds that by 48% to 28%, those comments make Minnesotans less likely to vote for her, rather than more likely.
Republicans in Minnesota clearly have the momentum, as they do nationally. There is plenty of time between now and November for Republican candidates in Minnesota to pick up the few additional points they need to secure victory. The Democrats’ polling obviously looks much like what we see tonight with the Harper survey, which is why Joe Biden has announced he will visit the state. But I doubt there is much that Slow Joe can do to stem the tide. After months of endorsing, or at the very least tolerating, rioting, looting and arson, it is too late for the Democrats to change their stripes.
If you want to contribute to Jason Lewis’s Senate campaign, go here.