In July, Monmouth had the race in Pennsylvania as Joe Biden 53%, Donald Trump 40%:
Monmouth poll:
Pennsylvania, registered voters
Joe Biden 53%
Donald Trump 40%— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) July 15, 2020
But the latest poll shows the 13-point lead is now gone and President Trump is within the margin of error:
New @MonmouthPoll has race in PA tightening significantly — within margin of error.
Among registered voters:
Biden 49 %
Trump 45
(+/- 4.9)Aug 28-31, 400 PA voters
Mid-July Biden had 53, Trump 40. Since then Trump has gained with men and younger voters.
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) September 2, 2020
So, was the July poll just really, really bad or the race has tightened this much?
Monmouth poll shows the race in Pennsylvania has tightened up by a net 9 percentage points
Today: Biden 49%, Trump 45% (MOE: 4.9%)
July Biden over Trump, 53-40%.https://t.co/FtU26JjwKT
— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) September 2, 2020
Biden leads under different scenarios, but these are also within the margin of error:
2/ Poll has 2 likely voter turnout models —
High turnout LV:
Biden 49
Trump 46Low turnout LV:
Biden 48
Trump 47Both within margin of error
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) September 2, 2020
And Joe Biden’s favorability isn’t that much better than the president’s:
3/ Biden favorable/unfavorable
48/46Trump 44/51
45% of registered voters say Trump has done a good job handling coronavirus; 53% say he has done a bad job. https://t.co/TN0t9sgjzA
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) September 2, 2020
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