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Washington, DC — On Wednesday, CNN started celebrating as they said a Republican Senate nightmare was coming true. The CNN article referred to a Cook Political Report article, that was supposedly non-partisan. The article cited Trump’s refusal to change course on the coronavirus response.
The prediction was 5-7 seats for the Democrats, which made the CNN ecstatic. The thoughts of a potential White House win and a potential majority across both chambers of Congress excites CNN. The issue is that the Senate majority is highly unlikely based on how things look now.
The CNN article talks about how Cook lists McSalley in Arizona as an underdog for the Republicans. It also talks about Doug Jones as an underdog for Democrats in Alabama. That would place both parties at 46 seats. So what happens with the last 8 seats up for grabs. Here’s my take on how things look, less than 3 months from election day.
According to Real Clear Politics, all 8 seats are tossups. Recent polls give us some insight into those races and likely outcomes. One listed as a tossup is Lindsey Graham’s seat in South Carolina. He had lead significantly until the most recent polls. While the race may have tightened, it’s highly unlikely he loses his seat.
In Georgia, David Perdue leads for Republicans and has for some time. The left holds out hope they could win this seat, but it does not seem likely. The left has also argued they have a chance to win the presidential vote in Georgia as well. This seat seems like another likely Republican win.
One seat at risk for Republicans is that of Susan Collins in Maine. She has trailed by 4-5 points in every poll. She has not been the strongest Republican overall and her support of Trump could hurt her in Maine. This seat seems like it may go to the Democrats.
Michigan is another race that Democrats feel strongly about. John James is giving incumbent Democrat Gary Peters a close race. James has consistently trailed in the race, but it’s still close to call. Close races typically favor the incumbent and so we can guess this will go to the Democrats.
In Montana, former Democratic presidential candidate and current Governor Steve Bullock is challenging incumbent Republican Steve Daines. Daines easily won this seat in 2014 and has led in the polls of late. Montana has consistently favored Republicans and Daines should be able to hold this seat.
That leaves us at 49 Republican seats with 48 Democratic seats based on those races. The other 3 races are complete tossups and difficult to call. Those are in Colorado, North Carolina, and Iowa.
In Colorado, Gardner won in 2014 by 2.5 points. In 2016, the other Senate seat went to the Democrats by over 7 points. There are no recent polls here, but I predict this seat will go to the Democrats.
In North Carolina, Thom Tillis is not performing well so far in polls against challenger Cal Cunningham. He has consistently trailed in the race since June, but the recent polls show the race may be tightening. North Carolina has typically been a lean Republican state, but this seat has flipped between Republicans and Democrats in the past. I do expect this race to tighten and for Tillis to hold his seat.
In Iowa, Joni Ernst is in a close fight. Polls have not given either candidate a clear advantage. One poll has Ernst by 3, another has Greenfield by 4. All of the polls are within the margin of error. While I believe the race will be close, I believe that Ernst will hold on and win this seat.
I predict the Republicans hold the Senate majority, by one single seat as the races stand now. Obviously, things can change between now and November. A couple of good situations for Republicans and they could easily win Arizona, Michigan, and Maine. The situation as it stands highlights the importance for Republicans to get out and vote this fall.
In the upcoming weeks, we will be doing a lot more election analysis. We will take a closer look at the Presidential race and look at where things stand state by state. Stay tuned to The Liberty Loft for the latest in all the election races.
Jared Dyson is the Editor-in-Chief at The Liberty Loft and host of The Jared Dyson Show. Be sure to subscribe to The Liberty Loft’s daily newsletter. If you enjoy our content, please consider donating to support The Liberty Loft so we can continue to deliver great content.
