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Washington, DC – GOP Senators around the country are sticking with President Trump. It’s for a good reason too, because they know the truth. The truth that if they want a chance to win, they have to stick with their party’s leader.
Early Monday, FiveThirtyEight ran an article that the move to stick with President Trump may hurt these Senators. The biggest argument used is in the case of McSally in Arizona, who has tied herself closely to Trump, while appearing to remain behind in the polls.
The article used a recent NBC News/Marist poll that showed McSally trailing by 12 points. Two more recent polls have the margin much smaller. CNN has her trailing by 7, while CNBC/Change Research has her trailing by 2 points.
Another race cited was that in North Carolina of Sen. Thom Tillis. Recent polls have shown that Tillis trails his competition by around 10 points. According to the Real Clear Politics average, the polls show a big jump by Cunningham over the last two weeks. A leap that simply does not make sense.
Cunningham has received nothing but negative press around North Carolina and is not significantly popular. There have been significant questions about his actions in regards to profiting off several government programs. It raises questions about the validity of these polls.
Another race cited was that of Sen. David Purdue in Georgia, where a lot of media has recently reported President Trump as trailing Biden. Recent polls show Purdue is not trailing in this race. The closest is at 2 points, which is within the margin of error.
These Senators are sticking with Trump because of the truth. They know that the polls have not favored Republicans, especially President Trump. Polls showed Trump trailing throughout the 2016 race, yet he still won.
For a moment, though, let’s talk about the ‘what if’ possibility of this. What if these polls are correct, and there is a potential shift congressionally.
If the polls are correct, Republicans stand to lose Tillis, McSalley, and Collins. Just those three seats would give Democrats at least 48 in the Senate. Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) appears safe from recent polling as well, pushing the total to 49.
Then the attention turns to other tossup seats. Ernst, Gardner, and Daines all appear to be close races. Is it possible that all of these seats flip to Democrats? Sure, it’s possible, but highly unlikely.
I think these Senators are doing the best thing that they can do. The momentum is moving back toward President Trump. If he continues to do well as he has recently, I expect him to continue to pull back into the margin of error with Biden in realistic polls.
Even if the Democrats take the closest seats, they will still not have a majority in the Senate. Still, it will be must more difficult to pass legislation in the Senate without as many Republicans. Especially as the House will most likely stay in Democrat control.
My prediction for the result of the 2020 election? I believe that Democrats win the House easily. I predict that Republicans maintain the Senate, winning most of the close races. Finally, I think things look promising for President Trump at the moment barring any significant issues.
Jared Dyson is the Editor-in-Chief at The Liberty Loft and host of The Jared Dyson Show. Be sure to subscribe to The Liberty Loft’s daily newsletter. If you enjoy our content, please consider donating to support The Liberty Loft so we can continue to deliver great content.