Twitter user Kyle Lamb put together a chart showing the number of deaths reported by the CDC linked to the China coronavirus.
The results of his work show that the CDC is adding deaths each week from prior periods that make the current period death totals appear greater than they really are and some of these additions are very suspect.
The number of deaths reported publicly come from the Covid Tracking Project.
Kyle Lamb created a chart using data from the CDC that shows the number of COVID-19 deaths reported by the CDC and the weeks the death occurred. In the chart below he shows the total number of deaths from COVID-19 reported by the CDC in the top row in grey. These totals change as each week passes with new deaths being reported per week as is expected.
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In a typical mortality table you should see a few deaths being reported in week one and many more in the following few weeks but then the number of deaths reported that occurred during a specific week decrease as time goes by. After a few weeks this lag in reporting diminishes and eventually all deaths are reported. This is typical in the insurance industry where the industry accounts for deaths being reported on a consistent rate over time with very few claims reported after a few months from the date of event (i.e. the date someone died). This may seem morbid to those not in the insurance industry but this is how it is done. Rarely are there jumps in reporting in prior periods unless something odd is going on (e.g. fraud).
What Kyle Lamb shows in his analysis is that the CDC is reporting deaths on a weekly basis. Many of the deaths are reported in the first few weeks after the death occurred (see cells in red, orange and yellow).
Most recent four week sum of deaths by reporting week:
July 11: 2,340
July 4: 2,868
June 27: 3,064
June 20: 5,226
June 13: 5,665
June 6: 6,809
May 30: 7,769
May 23: 10,960
May 16: 11,545
May 9: 9,387
May 2: 12,590— Kyle Lamb (@kylamb8) July 11, 2020
Lamb reports what he is seeing:
By analyzing this data, we can see if states were changing prior deaths to “probable” or if they’re backlogging. When we do this, we can combat the increasing deaths narrative. What we found this week is that the couple of spikes that were seen in ‘public’ numbers were not spikes
— Kyle Lamb (@kylamb8) July 11, 2020
Another individual took the data from the CDC used by Kyle Lamb and created a chart showing anomalies in CDC reporting. During this past week, the number of deaths reported included deaths from April which were suddenly reported this week.
Kyle nice work. Same data, but with a “heat map” showing the peaks with respect to each column. pic.twitter.com/0ruiO7qgO3
— Justin Houston (@houstonniner) July 11, 2020
Another individual put together a chart based on the CDC data that shows that deaths have been decreasing since April – no matter what the MSM says:
Alistair, given what we now see in the CDC’s Deaths by Date of Death data, which is broken out only by week, you can make the case that the date of peak deaths (assuming a smoothed curve) falls somewhere around the end of the WE Apr 11 or beginning of WE Apr 18. pic.twitter.com/34IsMIHSen
— Todd Lowdon (@tlowdon) July 11, 2020
Data reported by the CDC indicates that the China coronavirus reached its peak in mortality in April. The number deaths reported this past week included thousands of deaths from April. The CDC doesn’t share that the deaths reported in a given week include deaths from months ago.
