Readers probably recall that Italy was the first country to impose a nationwide lockdown in response to the Wuhan coronavirus. It did so on March 9.
Now, finally, Italy is set gradually to reopen its economy. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Italian government has “announced a timetable for reopening its economy and daily life beginning on May 4.” ABC News says that reopening has already commenced on a mini scale, with small shops across the country starting to open their doors.
According to Forbes, the May 4 reopening will apply to parks, construction sites, and factories. In addition, Italians will be permitted to travel within regions.
Professional athletes will be allowed to resume training outside their homes, but can’t engage in group training until May 18. Restaurants and bars won’t be permitted to seat customers until June 1, the same date that salons and hairdressers will be allowed to reopen.
We have often heard from President Trump’s advisers that Italy is a week or two ahead of the U.S. in this pandemic. I wonder whether, as a practical matter, this means that Northern Italy is a week or two ahead of New York and a couple of its neighboring states.
In any event, it might be interesting to consider the coronavirus numbers that contributed to the decision to begin reopening Italy, and to compare them to the numbers here in the U.S. In doing so, I don’t mean to suggest that our decisions regarding reopening should be guided by what the Italians do.
I believe most U.S. jurisdictions should have started reopening some time ago and that certain jurisdictions should not have locked down in the first place. However, policymakers at the federal and state level seem, for whatever reason, to give weight to the Italian experience with this virus. Hence, the following comparison between Italy and the U.S.
The number of new reported Wuhan coronavirus cases in Italy has been declining sharply. It peaked a month ago at more than 6,000 per day. Now, only around 2,000 cases per day are being reported. The decline in daily reported deaths has been about as dramatic — from a peak of around 900 to around 300.
The number of active cases– the currently infected — has stabilized and seems ready to decline. A week ago there were around 108,000 such cases. Now, there around 106,000.
How do these numbers compare to those of the United States? We have seen a decline in new reported cases the past two days — from around 36,000 (a peak) to around 25,000 cases. A few more days like the last two (or better), and we can conclude that new cases are, indeed, declining.
Daily deaths have also declined the past two days — from around 2,000 (down from the peak) to around 1,300. Total active cases have shown no real decline, but may have stabilized at around 810,000.
In New York State, which has driven U.S. numbers to a considerable degree, the pattern is similar. New reported cases are down from around 10,000 a day earlier this month to an average of around 5,000 the past two days. Daily deaths are down from 600-700 to around 300.
We do, then, seem to be a week or two behind Italy in terms of coronavirus numbers. But again, this doesn’t mean we should look to Italy’s timing in deciding when we try to get our economy rolling.
