The other day, I heard Deborah Birx, the Trump administration’s point person on the Wuhan coronavirus, say that the U.S. is about a week behind Italy in terms of its pandemic “curve.” I’ve seen it reported that the administration looks closely at the curves of certain other countries in trying to figure out what’s ahead for the U.S.
Therefore, it might be worthwhile to take another look at what’s going on in Italy.
Italy’s curve has “flattened.” We can see this from its logarithmic curves for both reported cases and reported deaths from the virus.
What does this mean in absolute numbers? Italy’s new reported cases are averaging around 4,000 a day lately, although yesterday it reported around 4,700. A week ago, Italy was averaging around 4,700. Two weeks ago, it was averaging close to 6,000.
Italy’s new reported deaths are averaging around 600 a day. Yesterday, the number was 619. A week ago, the average number was also around 600. Two weeks ago, it was around around 800.
In Spain, the picture is similar. It has also flattened its curve of new cases. Yet, it is still reporting more than 5,000 new cases per day, and more than 600 deaths.
Flattening the curve doesn’t mean anything approaching quick relief.